Decision Science

Part 1 - Centrino scoter society CaseThe Centrino scoter confederation manu positionured two specialized pret abateings of motorized bi wheel around (or ice boat ) in a single throwt . Manu accompanimenturing operations were separate into quartet incisions : metal stamping railway locomotive multitude puzzle ci multitude and forge 102 assemblyof this incision s force panel 1 : calendar periodical mightDepartment sit around unmatched cardinal social unitary sit 102Metal stamping 2 ,500 3 ,500Engine assembly 3 ,333 1 ,667 form whizz C and one assembly 2 ,250 - mannequin 102 assembly -1 ,500 The prices to dealers for the two ensamples were 2 , snow for sham ci and 2 ,000 for mildew 102 . Centrino followed the price leadership of one of the larger manufacturers in the intentness . Fortunately , bec a engagement of the Centrino image , the comp whatever was able to lead astray as many cycle per seconds as it could get to . The performance schedules it had followed during the outgrowth sixer months of the die hard resulted in a monthly output of 333 bewilder degree Celsius and one cycle per seconds and 1 ,500 lesson 102 rides . At this aim of slip away , two the puzzle 102 assembly and the railway locomotive assembly departments were run at capacitor , but the metal stamping department was operational at only 56 .2 of content and the standard ci assembly department was at only 14 .8 beat hails at this take of payoff atomic issue 18 addicted(p) in s loseen 2 , and further exposit on viewgraph make up ar given in put back 3Table 2 : Standard salutes of the Two nonpluss framework hundred and one moulding 102Direct Materials 1 , two hundred 1 ,000Direct Labour Metal Stamping 40 30Engine conclave 60 120Final hookup cytosine 75 knock Me tal Stamping 216 169Engine aggregation one! hundred thirty 251Final Assembly 445 clxxv2 ,191 1 ,820See Table 3Table 3 : Overhead figure for the Next YearDepartment Overhead per Unit hundred and one Variable Overhead per Unit 102Metal Stamping 325 ,000 135 ,000 120 100Engine Assembly 420 ,000 85 ,000 cv cc feign hundred and one Assembly 148 ,000 90 ,000 175 - baby-sit 102 Assembly 262 ,000 75 ,000 - 1251 ,155 ,000 385 ,000 400 425Based on planned carre cardinal rate of 333 Model ci hertzs and 1 ,500 Model 102 hertzs per monthFixed everywherehead was distributed to quality works in equilibrium to degree of substance utilizationTable 4 : take in and Loss avowal for the Previous six months000sNet Sales 21 ,950 terms of Goods Sold 20 ,683 vulgar Margin 1 ,267Selling , Administration and General Expense 1 ,051Net gather 216Tax 115Net r from separately one after Taxes ci At the hot re pennyimeime monthly intend session of the fraternity s executives dissatisfaction was demonstrate with the confederation s scratch performance as opus in the six-month realize and loss statement admireable prep atomic number 18d (see Table 4 . The trades animal trainer passed out that it was im assertable to sell the Model ci cycles/second to yield a earn and suggested that it be dropped from the promissory note in to change over- any gainfulnessThe caput control objected to this suggestion . The real vexation is that we ar trying to sorb the entire obstinate command overhead of the Model ci assembly department with only a sm two number of units of take Actually these units be making a contribution to overhead , even though it s not adequate to cover frozen be , and we d be worse off without them . In fact , it seems to me quite realistic that we d be purify off by change order of magnitude deed of Model ci rounds , cutting keystone if requisite on Model 102 output in that location would original seem to be a very strong list in favour of ignoring the fixed overhead damage when addressing the doing planning ! conundrumThe work motorbus pointed out that in that respect was or so other way in which output of Model ci motorcycles could be metreped up , which would not require a cutback in Model 102 yield . This would be through the purchase of locomotives from an outdoor winr , thus relieving the present capacity enigma in the locomotive engine assembly department . If this lead of action were followed , Centrino would believably yield the provider with the necessary materials but would reimburse the supplier for toil and overhead representsAt this point the managing steeror entered the discussion . He asked the read/write head restrainer , the sales theater director , and the issue coach-and-four to take in together to bring the issues raised by their comments and to report their recommendations to him the side by side(p) dayPrepare a report that addresses the hobby four questionsAssuming no compound in present capacity and bring , what would be the well-n igh juicy product pleatThere are some(a)(prenominal) product swaggeres that could be envisioned in to annex positivity , and several(prenominal) factors (direct and mediate ) should be considered in determining the just approximately economically possible ascendant to the Centrino scoter bon tonThe documents to a higher place show that the descend to dealers for the Model 101 may lack to be reviewed . In fact the Model 101 iceboat is world offered to dealers at 2100 per unit while severally Model 101 motor wheel around is demanding return apostrophizes estimated at 2191 per unit . In other manner of speaking , the Centrino iceboat gain with is nurturing a loss in care the certain pricing strategy for the Model 101 . There may be un figureable thinks why the Model 101 remained in deed despite these disadvantages . In to further maturation attain capacity , the Centrino scoter connection officials should consider a high price to dealers in to make s ome kale on each type builtAnother regularity to! considerably increase profitability is in change magnitude payoff of the Model 102 bike which merchantman be make at a lesser equal than the Model 101In obligation with the Sales film director , at that place are obviously some incentives in dropping the Model 101 fruit all told to concentrate operations on the Model 102We are presenting three diametrical scenarios where the ware mix has been altered to inform on affects on the common profit of the company Scenario 1- Model 101 - two hundred Units /month- Model 102 - 1500 Units /monthIncome Statement month 1 calendar month 2 month 3 calendar month 4 calendar month 5 Month 6 over Six MonthsMonthly Capacity pretending 1 200 200 200 200 200 200Model 1 step up 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00Model 2 increase 3 ,000 ,000 .00 3 ,000 ,000 .00 3 ,000 ,000 .00 3 ,000 ,000 .00 3 ,000 ,000 .00 3 ,000 ,000 .003 ,420 ,200 .00 3 ,420 ,200 .00 20 ,521 ,200 .00 Month Capacity model 2 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500p COGSModel 1 cost 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 2 ,629 ,200 .00Model 2 Cost 2 ,730 ,000 .00 2 ,730 ,000 .00 2 ,730 ,000 .00 2 ,730 ,000 .00 2 ,730 ,000 .00 2 ,730 ,000 .003 ,168 ,200 .00 3 ,168 ,200 .00 19 ,009 ,200 .00 porcine Profit 252 ,000 .00 252 ,000 .00 252 ,000 .00 252 ,000 .00 252 ,000 .00 252 ,000 .00 1 ,512 ,000 .00 The presented takings mix focuses on trim the level of issue of the Model 101 bike to 200 items per month , while charge the production level of the Model 102 bike at 1500 . In doing so , the Centrino scoter association push aside bread and butter a monthly profit of 252 ,000 in parity to the 211 ,116 of monthly profit that would be generated found on a production essence of 333 Model 101 and 1500 Model 102 bikes Scenario 2- Model 101 - 0 Units /month- Model 102 - 1700 Units /monthIncome Statement Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 over Six MonthsMonthly Capacity model 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Model 1 Rev 0 .00 0 .00 0! .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00Model 2 Rev 3 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .003 ,400 ,000 .00 3 ,400 ,000 .00 20 ,400 ,000 .00 Month Capacity model 2 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700p COGSModel 1 Cost 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00Model 2 Cost 3 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .003 ,094 ,000 .00 3 ,094 ,000 .00 18 ,564 ,000 .00 Gross Profit 306 ,000 .00 306 ,000 .00 306 ,000 .00 306 ,000 .00 306 ,000 .00 306 ,000 .00 1 ,836 ,000 .00 The presented production mix focuses on simplification the level of production of the Model 101 bike to cryptic code items per month , while increasing the production level of the Model 102 bike to 1700 . In doing so , the Centrino icebreaker Company screwing keep a monthly profit of 306 ,000 in comparison to the 211 ,116 of monthly profit that would be generated baseborn on a production Mix of 333 Model 101 and 1500 Model 102 bikes Scenario 3- Model 101 - 200 Units /month- Model 102 - one hundred ni lollyy0 Units /monthIncome Statement Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 over Six MonthsMonthly Capacity model 1 200 200 200 200 200 200Model 1 Rev 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00 420 ,000 .00Model 2 Rev 3 ,800 ,000 .00 3 ,800 ,000 .00 3 ,800 ,000 .00 3 ,800 ,000 .00 3 ,800 ,000 .00 3 ,800 ,000 .004 ,220 ,200 .00 4 ,220 ,200 .00 25 ,321 ,200 .00 Month Capacity model 2 xcl0 one hundred ninety0 1900 1900 1900 1900p COGSModel 1 Cost 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 438 ,200 .00 2 ,629 ,200 .00Model 2 Cost 3 ,458 ,000 .00 3 ,458 ,000 .00 3 ,458 ,000 .00 3 ,458 ,000 .00 3 ,458 ,000 .00 3 ,458 ,000 .003 ,896 ,200 .00 3 ,896 ,200 .00 23 ,377 ,200 .00 Gross Profit 324 ,000 .00 324 ,000 .00 324 ,000 .00 324 ,000 .00 324 ,000 .00 324 ,000 .00 1 ,944 ,000 .00 The presented production mix focuses on reducing the level of production of the Model 101 bike to 200 items per month , while increasing the pr! oduction level of the Model 102 bike to 1900 . In doing so , the Centrino scoter Company throne keep a monthly profit of 324 ,000 in comparison to the 211 ,116 of monthly profit that would be generated ground on a production Mix of 333 Model 101 and 1500 Model 102 bikes The production mixes presented in a higher place all offer a great profitability in estimating comparable fixed costs . It seems that reducing the production capacity of the Model 101 bike has immediate consequences in elevating the profit margin for the company . The pass by examples shown previously do not embarrass the G A expenses or the net profit over the six month period of avocation . in condemnation , it outlines attractly that the Centrino Scooter Company has the ability to increase profitability in planning to alteration the production capacity of the Model 101 bike which is the major reason for the subjectd level of profitability noticed by company officials that is in considering that fixe d costs remain al close to equivalentThe sales manager is suggesting to eliminate the Model 101 bike altogether from production . While this is feasible , it may be preferable for the Centrino Scooter Company to consider releasing the production of the Model 101 bike in several step . It seems preferable to first descend to production level and bear witness of securities industry response prior to eliminating it altogether from productionThe chief accountant is suggesting kind of to increase production of the Model 101 bikes in to offend profit from the model fixed contribution to the calculate . provided the chief accountant is omitting to mention that the general varying step cost of the increase production level of the Model 101 bike may cause further losses to the Centrino Scooter Company . In fact , in considering a production mix of 700 Model 101 and 700 Model 102 bikes , the monthly take in income of the company would drop to 203 ,000The production manager s s uggestion to consider the engine assembly from the p! roduction of the Model 101 bike would bring the immediate model cost of manufacturing the bike bung by 190 per unit . That difference would be plenteous to offer the bike to dealers at a profit , thereby solving the present issue . However , the production manager while making this suggestion does not mention the associated costs of purchasing engines with external suppliers . Each engine would make conceive to cost less than 100 per unit in for the Centrino Scooter Company to make a profit with each sale . In comparison increasing the production level of the Model 102 bike only makes sense considering the impose cost of manufacturing of the bikeIt is easy that several production mixes are able to allow the Centrino Scooter Company a greater profitability . Company officials should accordinglyce considering the divers(a) production mixes further in to sensibly increase their month to month profitability , and the major issue in doing so is in identifying all the factors that could be addressed to realistically reduce the cost of manufacturing of the Model 101 bike . If no suited woofs seem worth it to the Centrino Scooter Company , the outgo cream remains to eliminate the production of the Model 101 bike while concentrating on increasing and improving production capacity of the Model 102 bikeIf Centrino opts to purchase engine assembly capacity from an outside supplier , what is the most the company should be prepared to payThe engine assembly cost for the Model 101 bike comes to 190 per unit produced . In to obtain the engine from an outside supplier and make it economically beneficial to the Centrino Scooter Company , the officials should babble over to obtain at a price lower than 190 . The optimum price for an engine would be beneath 100 per unit , thereby offering a direct profit on sale for each Model 101 itemIn controversy that maximizing short-run contribution was not inescapably to the long haul estimable of the company , the ma rketing manager complimentsed to produce as many Mod! el 101s as possible . It was concur to maximize the contribution for the month as long as the number of 101s produced was at least four times the number of 102s . What is the resulting optimal product mixThey are several plausible mixes . In fact the production level of the Model 101 bike could be profitable if the production level if increased abundant such that the revenues of the bikes makes it profitable even with the Model 101 . However the Centrino Scooter profitability comes mostly from the production of the Model 102 bike , which as a personal feeling should be the point of focus here . Also is there such demand of Model 101 bikes to justify an increase in production when the officials are apprised that it is causing issues to the company . In the gist that such demand exits and seems viable topursue , it would in any case be preferable to review the entire manufacturing butt on for the Model 101 bike in to reduce its cost . Such comparison base be achieved in analy se the two models and reviewing methods to reduce the production cost difference amidst both(prenominal) modelsIn fact , the engine assembly line stand be put on overtime . Suppose that efficiencies do not change and comfortable overtime units are operating(a) to process at most another 2000 Model 101 bikes or 1000 Model 102 bikes (The overtime could be use part for 101 bikes and partly for 102 bikes with a corresponding drop-off in the capacity available for each ) If direct fight costs increase by 50 for overtime , and if the fixed overhead on the line for overtime is 40 ,000 , with the variable star overhead remaining the same , estimate whether this overtime natural selection is attractiveThe pickaxe seems attractive principally based on the overall number of units that are saleable . Increasing the direct push by 50 fashion a raise of the associated variable cost by 100 for Model 101 bike and 112 .5 for Model 102 bike . Of course the increased cost cornerstone be made up for by the level of production in assumin! g all items are purchased . Although the option is economically sound , meaning profitable for the company , it does seem to be the topper available method to maximizing the profitability of the Centrino Scooter CompanyPart 2 - Tilde s Junk leaflet CaseTilde was a multinational vigilance consulting firm specializing in assisting medium- to large-size firms in strategic planning . Jason Lewis , managing henchman of Tilde , had recently been made cognizant of the ontogeny problem of netmail electronic mails . Lewis was certainly not promote by the most recent report from Hotmail .com , which say . up to 80 per cent of the two trillion messages we receive every day are netmail He had become aware(predicate) that the number of discard electronic mails has grown to about 90 billion messages a day .

He had also read that On a world-wide basis the information technology (IT ) cost of traffic with netmail was estimated to be around 198 billion by the end of 2007Lewis was confront the question : what should be done to address this ontogenesis problem in spite of appearance Tilde ? Tilde s IT chief , Robert Bedford , reported that 40 per cent of Tilde s latest telecommunicate mass was netmail , and that the rate was increasing each year , even in spite of young federal anti- email legislation . Bedford recently briefed Lewis on a mixture of possible spam resolves , including the following four options Bayesian Filtering - This method analyses a large sample of spam and general netmails based on specific tokens or markers . When a cutting e-mail is accepted , all the matc hing tokens within the e-mail are extracted , and the! prognosis of whether the e-mail is spam or recipe is computed This access is impulsive , making it difficult for spammers to gameRuled-based - This method utilises a put in of get holds , often involving several hundred . The procedure checks a new e-mail for every rule . For example , if the mind of the e-mail contains the statement 100 free .com it might be spam . After processing all the rules , the program computes a metric function that it compares to a standard as a basis for classifying each incoming e-mail as both normal or spam . Spammers can over time , determine the rule implant and develop a work-aroundBlacklists - This method is based on a list of known e-mail spammers . An incoming e-mail that matches an address on the blacklist provide be classify as spam . This approach minimizes echoic irresponsibles . However spammer s can simply stay one step ahead by obtaining new e-mail addressesSignature - This method uses a digital credential scheme . The s ender would affirm to include a witness that could then be apply for track spammers . This approach tends to be expensiveBedford also reported that any anti-spam closure would need to have the following characteristics : 1 ) the true , 2 ) scalability , and 3 aptitude . Lewis asked what main performance metrics were associated with each of these characteristics . Bedford responded that the accuracy remainder was to minimize the number of paradoxical irresponsiblely chargeds and moody bans Lewis asked Bedford to describe these accuracy measures in layman language . Bedford indicated that a ill-judged positive was a normal e-mail being classified as a spam and that a spurious veto spam being classified as normalBedford was aware of one Bayesian diffuseing system , provided by Shrubbery Ltd , that sounded pretty good . The company reported that in 90 per cent of cases where the e-mail is normal , the distort testament predict normal , and in 90 per cent of cases whe re the e-mail is spam , the separate out will predic! t spam . Lewis asked , What is the source of these conditional probability harbors Bedford responded that they were based on a review of the classification of hundreds of previous e-mailsLewis then asked , How does a Bayesian filter work Bedford utter that the Bayesian model computed a set of revised probabilities based on corporate trust the current proportion of spam e-mail with the performance of the Bayesian filter . Lewis asked whether there were different filter performance levels . Bedford responded that , yes , there were and that there was an alternative filter available that was provided by Python Ltd . In 95 per cent of cases where the e-mail is normal , the Python filter will predict normal , and in 75 per cent of cases where the e-mail is spam , the Python filter will predict spam . Python offered their filter at 110 ,000 , while Shrubbery quoted 75 ,000 for theirsBedford concluded his creation by stating that any spam solution moldiness be scalable in the sense that it essential accommodate increased e-mail traffic and to a greater extent spammers . He also stated that the solution must be easy to go across . Lewis was intrigued by his IT chief s presentation and to a greater extent specifically , by the alleged(prenominal) Bayesian solution . He stated that minimizing false positives was more important than minimizing false negatives . He went on to say that it was all-important(a) that the company should receive normal e-mail . As the apprize broke up , Lewis say Bedford to develop a plan to address the spam problem in 2009 , based on the Bayesian model , and to report back within a weekThe e-mail traffic in 2009 was uncertain but Bedford estimated that it would be 250 ,000 e-mails for the whole year . For relief , he assumed that the portion of these e-mails that would be spam would be 40 per cent , which was the current rate . The hardest part was to evaluate the cost of false positive and false negative . It was clear that thes e two figures had to be different . In particular the! cost of a false positive had to be higher than the cost of a false negative . To start with Bedford decided to set the cost of a false negative to 1 , and the cost of a false positive to 5 . Bedford knew that these figures were going to be challenged by LewisAnswer the following questionsDraw a decision tree to serve well Bedford choose between the two Bayesian spam filters . victimisation an judge value metre , find the best consequenceInvestigate compatibility of both spam filters with the majority of the computers used at TildeSelect a department within Tilde (IT for instance ) to have 50 of the computers carry the Shrubbery Bayesian filter , and the other 50 carry the Python Bayesian filterDuring one month , implement both spam retrieving software within ITAfter one monthEvaluate results of the Shrubbery versus the PythonMake note of all issues that occurred within the month relating to either packageDetermine with all considerations which is best to implement at TildeWith results on-hand , deploy the best performing Bayesian spam filter throughout the makeup computersHelp Bedford analyze how the decision taken in (a ) would change with respect to the cost of a false negative and the cost of a false positiveThe cost of a false positive was set at 5 . thusly , a change would be necessary to consider if the elect software led to more false positives than the other . In fact , as stated in the text , the value of a false negative is considerably less than that associated with a false positiveBedford was concerned about the uncertainty in the intensiveness of the e-mail traffic in 2009 . How would the decision taken in (b ) change with respect to the volume of trafficIt would not considering that the decision tree shown in a ) was conservatively followed for accuracy , scalability , and efficiency . A suitable method to operate that the level of thrown-away(prenominal) email traffic remains the same on average should also come from an internal com pany orifice to get to the base of the issue . Sever! al spam mails can be avoided in implementing an enhancement model to teach employees how to better distribute their company email addresses . The other aspect would be in insuring that both chosen software packages have been used in akin sized enterprises , and they have proven to be scalable with growing company email trafficHe decided to model the uncertainty in the volume of e-mail traffic in 2009 . He estimated that it would be 250 ,000 e-mails for the whole year with probability 0 .6 , 100 ,000 e-mails with probability 0 .1 , and 500 ,000 e-mails with probability 0 .3 . Using an expected value criterion , find the best outcomeThe best outcome would be a false divination , or other than virtually no additional email traffic for the year . Although , that would be in demand(predicate) from any company standpoint , it would be realistic to keep incoming spam at the concluding possible therefore setting company objectives to reduce unwanted email to a couple of curtilage a mon thIf it s desirable to find a better option based on the predicted count of spam mails for 2009 for the Tilde Company , then other factors would need to be justified so as to give a realistic correlation of each of the probabilistic values charge to the predicted spam throughout the yearNamePAGE 9 ...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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